From Wishlists to Popular Upcoming: A Tactical Guide for Steam Success
If you’re a game studio trying to get on Steam’s Popular Upcoming chart, this guide will show you how. We’ll break down cost-per-wishlist (CPW) benchmarks across channels, explain why costs rise with scale, and reveal how Raijin is building a smarter model for devs who want efficient, scalable discovery.
This guide is created by Raijin, a discovery engine for PC games, designed to help developers reach large, high-intent audiences. The platform currently leverages targeted giveaways to drive tens of thousands of Steam wishlists — successfully pushing games into Steam’s Popular Upcoming section on an almost daily basis. By combining predictable performance with organic user motivation, Raijin offers developers a scalable path to front-page visibility.
Steam Wishlists Are the Most Predictive Metric — But Expensive to Acquire
Your game’s Steam wishlist count is the single most important signal for visibility. It determines whether you:
- Show up on “Popular Upcoming”
- Appear in “Discovery Queue” placements
- Receive algorithmic email promotion from Steam
But getting those wishlists? It’s expensive.
Below is a cost-per-wishlist (CPW) benchmark report sourced from leading indie game marketing experts.
Sources:
- Chris Zukowski, howtomarketagame.com
- Simon Carless, gamediscover.co
Why Cost per Wishlist Gets More Expensive Over Time
At first, CPW might seem manageable. But as you scale, acquisition efficiency drops — fast. Here’s why:
Audience Saturation
Your most engaged audience converts early. Over time, you’re showing ads to colder, less relevant users — driving CPW up.
Auction Competition
Meta, Reddit, TikTok — all run on real-time auctions. As you scale, you must bid higher to reach broader audiences (like US/EU PC gamers).
Ad Fatigue
As frequency increases, CTR drops. Your ads burn out, relevance scores tank, and CPC rises.
4. Niche Ceiling
If you’re a niche genre (e.g. turn-based tactics), the high-intent audience is small. Once it’s tapped, CPW spikes.
CPW Curve as You Scale
How Raijin Flips the Model
Raijin is a wishlist engine built for predictability, affordability and scale.
Unlike paid ads, Raijin uses a giveaway-driven system — letting players earn entries by wishlisting your game via their connected Steam accounts. This changes the economics entirely:
Performance-Based
Fixed-cost or pay-per-wishlist models give devs confidence and budget clarity.
Immune to Ad Fatigue
No creative burnout. No auction wars. No CTR dropoffs.
Organic Incentives
Gamers opt in to win games — creating natural motivation instead of banner blindness.
Quality Review
Since all Raijin users connect their Steam account, activity is verified to ensure quality
For studios chasing 10,000+ wishlists, Raijin becomes dramatically more efficient than Meta, Reddit, or influencers.
Working Theory: How to Show Up on Steam’s “Popular Upcoming”
Based on community data, Reddit reports, and early testing, here’s the unofficial but plausible algorithm for appearing in Popular Upcoming:
Required to Show Up:
- Games must have tags defined in the Steam backend. More popular tags (rougelike, co-op, etc.) increase the chances.
- The game must have a language setting matching the viewer (English to appear on the US front page). Each country has a default language, if your game doesn’t support that default language, then it won’t show up on the front page in that country.
- No recent change to release date within last 2 weeks (still unconfirmed)
- Community hubs should have recent activity (posts, news, discussions). The two weeks before release, it is highly suggested to make daily developer posts.
- Having sexual content will restrict the game from showing up in some countries, or for users that have that disabled.
- A game in early access, will never show up in Popular Upcoming, as steam deems it released. Once you enter Early Access state (the game is downloadable), you will no longer be able to make it on Popular Upcoming
- Must have a release date set.
Helps Visibility (Not Required):
- Demo attached to store page
- Video trailer on the page
- Website URL filled in
Wishlist Volume Theory:
- Game has 25,000+ all-time wishlists
- Maintains 1,000–2,000 new wishlists/day
- Releasing within the next 14 days likely performs better.
We’re actively testing this theory across genres and release windows and will refine as data emerges. It is possible that depending on the competition around a release date, these wishlist amounts could increase.
Regional Bias in “Popular Upcoming” Listings
The “Popular Upcoming” section on Steam is not universal. It changes based on:
- Region (e.g., U.S. vs. Canada)
- Currency (USD vs. CAD)
- Language settings (English vs. French)
- Client type (e.g., desktop client vs. web browser)
- Login status (logged-in vs. logged-out users)
Example: A user in San Francisco (USD, English, Windows client) will see a different list than someone in Vancouver (CAD, French, browser).
Even two logged-in users on the same IP address may see slightly different results due to personalization — likely influenced by Steam Tags or browsing behavior. However, logged-out users sharing the same IP see the exact same list, suggesting personalization is removed in that state.
How Games Are Ordered in the “Popular Upcoming” List
- Release date is the primary factor.
- Wishlist count does not affect ordering once a game is on the list.
- Games with earlier release dates appear higher.
- Titles move upward as their release date approaches.
Key Strategy Tip: Avoid launching at the same exact time as other titles. Use Steam’s tools to research upcoming release schedules and pick a low-competition slot to maximize visibility.
Why Release Timing Matters for Visibility
Steam lets you specify vague release windows like:
- “Q2 2025” (interpreted as June 30, 2025)
- “2025” (treated as December 31, 2025)
These default to the latest possible date in the range, placing your game in a crowded pool with many others. That means:
- Tougher competition to appear in “Popular Upcoming”
- You’ll need more wishlists to break through
Best Practice: Set a specific release date that:
- Avoids the final 2 weeks of a month or quarter end
- Avoids dates already taken by major titles
Use tools like SteamDB to scout out high-traffic dates and steer clear.
Case Study: Mecha BREAK’s Struggle for Visibility
As of June 26, 2025, Mecha BREAK was the 4th most wishlisted game on Steam.
However, with a release date of July 1, 2025, it failed to appear in the “Popular Upcoming” section.
Why? Because:
- The list was saturated with games marked for “Q2 2025” and “June 2025”
- The game was buried despite its popularity
This illustrates the downside of launching at the tail end of a vague release window.
TL;DR: What B2B Marketers & Devs Should Know
- Paid channels get expensive fast — especially beyond 2K wishlists.
- Raijin offers predictable wishlist acquisition at scale without the fatigue or volatility.
- Steam’s “Popular Upcoming” appears to favor consistent momentum, not just raw totals.
- Hitting 10K+ wishlists efficiently is a game of systems, not spikes.
If you want to climb the Steam charts — do it with performance, not prayer.
